Delta timing is a tool used to define momentum and future direction for any market.
By studying the unique price patterns of a market, a statistical formula is created called a solution.
Each market, like a fingerprint, has its own unique solution.
These solutions are created for specific time frames. The time frames and solutions were first developed by Welles Wilder and Jim Sloman in 1984. They include a 4-day cycle, a 4-month cycle, a 1-year cycle, a 4-year cycle and finally, a 19-year cycle. To learn more about the initial discovery see The Delta Story or purchase the book The Delta Phenomenon to get started.
What markets use Delta timing?
The commodity market was the first solved by Welles Wilder. Included are the indexes, debt instruments, currencies, softs, metals, energies, meats, and finally the grains. The cycles that were developed for commodities include, the 4 day cycle or Short term cycle, the 4 month or Intermediate cycle, the 1 year or Medium term cycle and the 4 year or Long term cycle.
The stock market was developed by sectoring all stocks into 60 stock families. The time frames developed were the Intermediate cycle, the Medium term cycle and the Long term cycle. By trading in the direction of these three time frames many stock traders find higher probability trade placement.
The Forex market was developed for the 6 majors. Welles Wilder said these cycles were the hardest to develop. He completed his work in 2005 by developing the Short term, the Intermediate term and the Medium term solutions.
How do Delta Society Members use Delta Timing?
One of the principles to use Delta timing effectively is to combine the three time frames and trade in the direction of those time frames. Many members filter the Member Trading Systems developed by Welles Wilder with Delta timing to greatly increase their chances for success. Other traders in the Delta Society combine Elliott Wave, Fibonacci numbers, Gann, and technical analysis with Delta timing for successful trades. By adding Delta timing as a filter to their trading system, profitable trades are more frequent.
How are the solutions displayed?
The timing cycles are programmed and visually displayed into our proprietary software, Delta Graphics. With membership into the Delta Society, a copy of Delta Graphics is provided and supported for trading decisions and for programming updates.
What are traders saying about Delta timing?
Dan O’Brien is a Commodity broker using Delta Timing in his trading approach. You can follow some of his trades through the Trade of the Week.
My name is Dan O'Brien and I am a Delta director. I have been trading the futures markets for about 10-years as a broker and the owner of an IB, using the Delta points and Welles Wilder technicals most of that time.
When I began my career as a broker 10-years ago, I had never heard of either Mr. Wilder or the Delta Phenomenon. At this time I was told by my boss to buy call options in heating oil when it was cold and to buy soybean calls when it was hot. If a hurricane was heading for Florida, we were told to buy call options in orange juice. Unfortunately, the vast majority of these trades expired worthless or nearly worthless, and it's no wonder; there was little to no thought put into these trades whatsoever. Unfortunately, these nonsensical "recommendations" continue today across the country. Does this sound familiar?
After about a year and a half I just couldn't take it anymore. I had to find a better way. As I researched different styles of trading, I came across Welles Wilder's Delta Phenomenon book. I ordered what is still the most expensive book I have in my trading library, but was well worth the price. I ordered the book because cycles occur all around us, none more prevalent than the growing season cycle of commodities. This, however, does not mean that the price of soybeans must go up in the summer (no matter what your newbie broker tells you), but just that something major could happen...like a perfect growing season that leads to a major price drop.
To make what could be a very long story shorter, I started my journey to learn a better way. Because of my background I was able to decipher all of the commodity turning points on my own, which surprised Delta executives to say the least. We have had a great relationship since then. It's wasn't all peaches & cream, however, as everything new comes with a learning curve...especially when it's about trading. This learning curve has led to my CSS program that follows.
The "Commodity Swing System's" (CSS) trading methodology is a systematic, medium-term trading approach. The CSS methodology is not "always in the market," but implements filtering techniques that avoid swings and trends with adverse risk/reward characteristics. While the goal is to exploit medium-term swings, the CSS program will when appropriate, attempt to capture long-term trends. The system only enters the market during periods when the risk/reward of a trade is weighted in the trade's favor. If unacceptable risk characteristics exist, the system will even avoid potential trades that have a positive profit expectation. The end result is a trading method that we believe will yield exceptional returns that are uncorrelated to traditional stock and bond investments. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The CSS program uses a combination of market momentum, Delta turning points, and what I believe is Welles Wilder's best original concept, average true range. First, Delta's turning points give us a potential direction and time window to make a trade. Although that is great information to have, I believe it can be enhanced. Next market momentum: when bullish or bearish momentum confirms the Delta turning point, we have a trade. Finally, we employ the average true range of that particular market to exit the trade. In other words, the ATR is a trailing stop that can protect the trade from a major reversal, or trail the stop during a trend. The placing of certain orders (STOP LOSS ORDERS), which are intended to limit losses to certain amounts, may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Unlike some other programs, this ATR trailing stop never moves away from the market. It follows a principle rule of trading: once a stop is in place, never move it away from the market.
First Chicago Trading Group, LLC
600 W. Jackson
Chicago, IL 60661
Phones 312-238-0261, (312) 224-8805, (312) 224-8361
TOLL FREE = (866) 729-1293
FAX = 610-561-3902
E-mail = [email protected]
Ron Rosen writes the Ron Rosen Precious Metal Timing Letter.
I began my career on Wall Street in 1956. After a six month internship in the margin department of Carl M.Loeb, Rhodes & Co., I entered their training program for stock and commodity market registered representatives. During the training period I studied at the New York Institute of Finance. The courses completed were: Brokerage Office Procedure and Security Analysis 1 and 2. I successfully passed all tests and became a licensed registered representative in 1957. During the next twenty years I was associated with several different brokerage firms. They were Harris, Upham and Co., Carter, Berlind and Weill, and Smith Barney. I retired fom the brokerage business in 1977 to manage my own and family accounts.
For the past 50 years I have been studying and using all forms of technical analysis. Included in the studies are the works and writings of W.D.Gann, Ralph Nelson Elliott and the Elliott Wave Theory, and a myriad of other technical indicators. There was always one most important ingredient missing. That ingredient was time. None of the technicals I used were able to provide me with the timing of highs and lows in the short, medium, and long term time frames for stocks or commodities. For me this was the most important ingredient and it was not available. In the mid 1990's it was my good fortune to be provided with the one major ingredient I had been missing for decades. This was the
Delta Turning Points. The Delta Turning points brought all of my decades long work together and allowed me to feel extremely confident that I now would be able to time market entry and exits to the highest probability. I became a member of the Delta Society and then a director. The Delta Society International in 2005 asked me to write a precious metals market timing letter that would be available to the public through the Delta Society. They, as I do, believe this is a service that is extremely important to offer at this point in time. I personally feel this is the most gratifying part of my 50 year career of being actively engaged with the markets. Fortunately, the subscribers to the Precious Metals Market Timing Letter are gratified as well.
Dick Wisotzkey writes the Wisotzkey Stock Letter
My first experience trading the markets was in 1992, as a result of answering an ad for a trading system developed by Ted Warren that was being promoted by (this will sound familiar) Ken Roberts. I soon realized this method of trading required owning a large variety of stocks, something my trading account couldn’t continue to support for an extended period of time. At that time in my life I owned and operated a car dealership and, fortunately, one of my customers handed me a book to read that he thought would help develop my interest in trading. That book was The Delta Phenomenon by Welles Wilder. After reading the book, I became a member, then a director, in the Delta Society. Since then, I have read and studied a multitude of books, video tapes, and various trading systems and, from all of this, was able to construct a trading system of my own that includes a technical indicator that I personally developed to identify tops and bottoms, and it does this with impressive accuracy. This system is comprised of the Delta Turning Points, Elliott Wave Principle, and a group of technical indicators which consistently produces a high percentage of successful trades. I find Elliott wave to be an important part of my analysis, as it allows me to identify the various degrees of the wave structure. As impressive as this initially sounds, Elliott is not a stand-alone tool and will bring disappointment to traders who try to use it as such. I use the Delta turning points to identify movement within the wave structures.
The Delta turning points:
aid in fine tuning these entries and exits
identify improper wave counts
help determine, with a high degree of probability, when a wave count is complete
can be applied to any degree of the wave structure
In September of 2005, after being friends for many years, an executive at Delta Society was aware that I was changing my trading from commodity futures to stocks, and asked if I would consider writing a stock trading newsletter identifying entry and exit signals. I agreed and, after using the remainder of 2005 as a learning curve (with good results), in 2006, began monitoring the results of these trades. This list of closed trades is continuously updated and available to subscribers of the newsletter. As of this writing, twenty-four trades have been closed in 2006, with twenty-two of these trades producing a profit. This system has produced a better than 90% success rate the first 8 months of 2006. Using the internet, go to Wisotzkey Stock Letter and subscribe. Good trading, and welcome to The Delta Society.
David Wilder the son of Welles Wilder uses Delta Timing in his trading approach.
I began my financial career at Trend Research and Delta Society outside Greensboro, NC in the 1994. I obtained a Series 3 license, traded commodities for myself and select clients, continued the research on Delta time frames, published a monthly newsletter and co-developed a Hotline Trade Service for clients.
Upon leaving Trend Research in 2000 I went back to school at Bentley College in Massachusetts. While finishing my Masters in Corporate Finance, I worked at the Hughey Center for Financial Services Trading Room on the campus. I continued in research and taught financial software classes to undergraduates, graduates and faculty.
My family and I moved to Baton Rouge, LA in early 2004 where I began at Legg Mason as a Financial Advisor. I currently work in Baton Rouge with Merrill Lynch in the Global Private Client Group. I provide financial advice to high net worth individuals, business owners and corporate executives.
Delta is an essential tool in my trading arsenal. Delta timing has improved my timing on the both the purchase and sell of individual stock positions and ETF’s for clients. Visually, Delta gives me a template for the timing of future high and lows.
Using Delta in conjunction with fundamental and technical analysis gives me greater confidence, and an edge or insight into what will likely happen. I can’t imagine not having it.
Global Private Client Group
445 N. Blvd. 4th Floor
Baton Rouge, LA 70802
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